Press release №1899
05.12.2016
MONITORING OF INFLATION IN RUSSIA

IN BRIEF

  • In October, respondents experienced a significant notable increase in prices for fruits in vegetables, compared to September

October saw a considerable leap upwards in prices for horticultural crop.

MOSCOW, November 28, 2016.  Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the data of the survey devoted to Russian assessments of price increase for certain goods and services.  

The index of October prices for basic goods and services have not changed much compared to September; the highest rise was recorded for fruits and vegetables. At the same time, those Russians who purchase food products say that a year ago the inflation rate was much higher.

Except for fruits and vegetables (price increase for them was noticed by 65% over the recent month or two, including 25% of those who think that the rise was substantial), meat prices’ increase has been notable for 66% of respondents.  The October price increase indices* for these products were 43 p. and 45 p. (versus 59 p. and 60 p. in October 2015, respectively, on a scale from -100 to 100). Most of shoppers also mention rising prices for dairy products (63%, 39 p.) and baked goods (52%; 30 p.).

Slightly less than half of respondents who buy foods report an increase in prices for sugar (48%), cereals and pasta (47%); inflation perceptions are 28 p. However, 32% and 41%, respectively,   consider that prices have been stable.

Sixty-seven percent of Russians noticed rising public utilities’ charges (49 p.), however this is lower than the previous year figure (81%, 64 p.). Every second Russian mentions petrol price increase (50%; 35 p.). Public transport costs are still stable: only 29% report a fare increase of 29%, whereas 51% did not see any changes when paying travel costs (index is 20 p.).

*Price increase index shows the Russian perception of inflation. The index is calculated as a sum of answers to the question “How would you assess the increase of prices for the following goods over the recent month or two?”. The answer “prices have considerably changed” corresponds to the coefficient (-1); "prices have decreased, but not too much" - coefficient (-0.5); "prices have increased, but not too much" – coefficient (0.5); "prices have considerably increased" – coefficient (1); "prices have not changed" coefficient (0). The index is measured in points and can vary between -100 and 100. The higher the value of index is, the higher the inflation rate is, according to Russians.

The VCIOM survey was conducted on October 29-30, 2016, in 130 settlements, 46 regions and 8 federal districts of Russia. Sample size was 1600 persons. The survey was conducted with multi-stage stratified sample based on general rule of walking and quotas at the final selection stage; the sample is representative of the Russian population aged 18 and over according to sex, age, education, type of settlement.  The margin of error (taking into account the design effect) with 95% confidence interval does not exceed 3.5%. The survey method is community-based structured face-to-face interviews. Apart from the margin of error, minor changes in question wording and different circumstances arising during the field work should be taken into account.

How would you assess the increase in prices for the following goods over the recent month or two? (closed-ended question, one answer per each item, % of those who do shopping (73%))
    Prices have considerably decreased Prices have decreased, but not too much Prices have not changed Prices have increased, but not too much Prices have considerably increased Don’t know Index*

Utility fees 

X.16

0

0

24

35

32

9

49

X.15 0 0 15 33 48 4 64
Meat products X.16 0 1 21 41 25 12 45
X.15 0 1 13 37 42 7 60
Petrol X.16 0 0 13 29 21 37 35
X.15 0 0 9 25 36 30 49
Dairy products X.16 0 1 29 47 16 7 39
X.15 0 1 19 45 29 6 51
Bread and bakery X.16 0 1 42 41 11 5 30
X.15 0 1 29 46 21 3 43
Sugar X.16 0 8 32 33 15 12 28
X.15 0 2 18 34 36 10 51
Pasta X.16 0 1 41 37 10 11 28
X.15 0 1 25 42 25 7 45
Fruits and vegetables X.16 1 4 21 40 25 9 43
X.15 0 2 14 38 41 5 59
Public transport fares  X.16 0 0 51 19 10 20 20
X.15 0 0 42 24 17 17 29
How would you assess the increase in prices for certain goods over the recent month or two?  (closed-ended question, one answer per each item, answers of those who do shopping, Price increase index * in points)
  Bakery Pasta Dairy Fruits, vegetables Meat Sugar Public utilities fees Public transport fares  Petrol
I qtr 2015 61 72 68 79 76 79 59 41 42
II qtr 2015 52 54 59 70 68 57 53 33 39
July 2015 41 41 49 41 58 49 65 33 48
August 2015 44 48 51 45 60 58 64 31 53
September 2015 43 45 51 44 61 56 64 29 54
October  2015 43 45 51 59 60 51 64 29 49
November 2015 42 41 50 60 57 44 58 26 46
December 2015 40 37 48 61 54 40 56 29 38
January 2016 39 38 46 63 50 41 52 34 33
March 2016 40 39 49 60 51 43 57 29 45
April  2016 39 37 45 56 47 39 51 30 47
May  2016 35 31 40 45 41 32 42 24 38
June 2016 32 32 37 40 41 35 43 25 41
July 2016 32 31 36 30 41 40 53 22 42
August 2016 33 31 37 22 43 41 56 21 42
September 2016 32 30 36 28 42 30 49 20 37
October  2016 30 28 39 43 45 28 49 20 35

Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!

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